SJMN (Kawakami blog): The Warriors add Turiaf, mull Willia..

The Warriors add Turiaf, mull Williams: They might not be better, but they'll
certainly be deeper

Posted by Tim Kawakami on July 20th, 2008 at 1:44 pm

There is a big picture here, if you pay close enough attention to what Chris
Mullin is doing and if you read Marcus Thompson II in the CCT.

My conclusion:

Mullin doesn't want Monta Ellis to go through the same marathon/collapse
this season that Don Nelson put Ellis, Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson
through last season.

It might not and probably won't lead to a better team this season than last
season with Baron hauling the Warriors through thick and thin and Monta
adding in here or there, but it looks like the 2008-2009 team will be more
balanced and less prone to the highs and lows of riding with one particular
up-and-down ball-dominator.

Here are the moves of the last few days:

-The Warriors just added big man Ronny Turiaf when the Lakers failed to
match the Warriors' four-year, $19M offer sheet.

That's a big price for a back-up player, especially if Don Nelson keeps to
his tradition of rarely playing back-up big men-and sometimes rarely playing
his starting big men, too.

But adding Turiaf should give the Warriors a pivot for a strong, possibly
advantageous second-team unit (perhaps leaving Corey Maggette in), which
means Nelson might feel less obligated to keep Ellis and SJax in for entire
quarters or halves just to keep things close.

-According to ESteinPN, the GSWs are seriously contemplating a run at 76ers
restricted free-agent guard Louis Williams.

That could be expensive for a non-distributing small guard, since the 76ers
can match. That means the Warriors either have to go big with the offer to
force a non-match (and the Warriors probably don't have quite enough space
under the cap to do that) or work a sign-and-trade with Philly and either
way, Williams would be expensive.

That also could take the Warriors right out of the Kelenna Azubuike
market-he signed a three-year, $9.3M offer sheet ($2.9M/$3.1M/$3.3M player
option) with the Clippers late last week and the Warriors have until this
Saturday (or so) to match or let him go.

Not only would a Williams play eat into whatever money the Warriors might've
alotted for Azubuike-another back-up-but perhaps more immediately, the
timing would be crucial. The Warriors probably have to decide on Williams
this week; if he's a goal, then they'd have to let Azubuike go, I'd think.

But if they get Williams-by the way, that's NOT even a 50/50 proposition, I'd
think, at this point-there's another strong leader for a second unit,
basically a Monta Duplicate, which would definitely help Nelson pare down
Ellis' minutes closer to 32 or 34 per instead of near 40.

So that's the subtext here, I think, to these and the previous moves.

-Letting Davis go (with some continued protestations by Davis' agent that
the Warriors never made a serious play);

-Tossing a big chunk at Maggette;

-Paying for a back-up center (Turiaf and Maggette combine for almost $13M
this season and almost $70M overall, both figures more than Davis' deal with
the Clips);

-And considering another small guard at a pretty high price.

Here's my view of what Mullin's doing: Pending further movement-and I don't
think anything huge is happening for now-and assuming the re-signing of
Ellis and Andris Biedrins, the Warriors have gone from a scrambling,
exhausted 7-man team totally dependent on BD to the makings of a potentially
complete 8-, 9- or maybe even 10-man rotation that can turn to Ellis,
Maggette or a total team effort to try to win games.

Of course, that's assuming Nelson wants to play these additional guys and I
think that'll be something to watch very closely once November and December
arrive.

I know everybody reading this remembers that by the final weeks of last
season, Nelson was basically going with a 6 1/2- to 7 1/2-man rotation while
burning the gears of Davis (38.9 minutes per game last season but higher at
the end), Ellis (37.9) and Jackson (39.1).

The down-the-stretch rotation :

-Baron for 45 minutes.
-Monta for 47 minutes.
-SJax for 44 minutes.
-Biedrins for 38 minutes.
-Harrington for 35 minutes.
-Pietrus for 14 minutes.
-Azubuike for 10 minutes.
-Somebody else (Watson, Barnes, Wright, Croshere): 5 minutes.

Without counting Williams, here's what the Warriors' main rotation could
look like this season:

-Ellis about 33 high-speed minutes.
-Maggette about 33 minutes.
-SJax about 34 minutes.
-Biedrins about 28 minutes.
-Harrington about 22 minutes.
-2nd unit: Turiaf about 24 minutes.
-2nd unit: Brandan Wright about 22 minutes.
-2nd unit: Azubuike, Anthony Randolph or someone else about 14 minutes.
-2nd unit: Marco Belinelli about 16 minutes.
-2nd unit: Back-up point guard about 14 minutes (if it's Williams, about 22
minutes).

-Also can use: Kosta Perovic, if he returns.
-Also can use: C.J. Watson, if he returns.
-Also can use: DeMarcus Nelson, if he comes to camp and wins a job.
-Also can use: Richard Hendrix, the 2nd-round pick.
-Also can use: Other unsigned players.

Note: I don't think Mullin or Nelson imagine that the second unit would
necessarily play all together a majority of the time. I'd guess Maggette
hangs in the game as the other starters check out-like Ginobili does when
Duncan's out-and plays with Turiaf/Wright/Belinelli.

Then Ellis can come back in subbing for Maggette and go for a five-minute
small-ball run with C.J. Watson/other point guard/Louis W, which is what New
Orleans did last year so successfully with Chris Paul and Jannero Pargo.

See how that works? Lots of options: They can stay with Maggette if he's
hot, switch him out for Belinelli and let him roll if Belinelli gets going,
let Monta go crazy if that's working, work the team concept with Wright,
Turiaf, Randolph, SJax or Whoever Else.

Again, this is not a roster that projects to win more than a team with a
healthy, motivated Baron Davis. For instance, this is not a roster that
would've knocked off Dallas in the first round of the 2007 playoffs.

But that 2007 team was financially toppling over, so Mullin switched Jason
Richardson for Wright plus the option to spend $9.9M in a trade exception
(which the Warriors let elapse this summer) and shh, the shot at Kevin
Garnett.

The 2007-2008 team was, in retrospect, the unbalanced end of the Baron Era,
especially when Pietrus got rattled and Barnes fell off the face of the
earth and Croshere and Troy Hudson never healed up and Harrington never got
consistent and Chris Webber. was Chris Webber.

So Nellie overloaded Baron, Monta and SJax to go for as much as he could get
out of them. and the team won 48 games and fell flat at the end.

I think Mullin made the decision then: He'll never get so top-heavy again
and he won't dare go into a season counting on humongous production and
playing-time responsibility out of Barnes, Harrington, Pietrus and the Rest
of the Collection. Mullin wanted to get more versatile.

This season, again, pending further moves, Mulin:

-Hopes to replace Baron's offense with more of Monta with the ball and by
signing Maggette;

-Possibly hopes to ease the play-making/distributing burden on Monta by
adding another lead guard who can either start alongside Ellis or back him
up solidly;

-Hopes to add energy and bulk by signing Turiaf (with the Baron money) and
possibly seeing what Hendrix can give them;

-Hopes to get more versatility and consistency out of the wing spots by
saying good-bye to Pietrus and (probably) Barnes and possibly Azubuike and
adding Maggette and counting on Belinelli and possibly Randolph;

-Hopes that the new playmakers push Nelson to let Harrington do other things
than just stand around at the three-point line;

-Hopes to egg Nelson into playing Wright more by teaming him with Turiaf; it's
tough for Nelson to play Biedrins and Wright together on a first or second
unit, but Turiaf and Wright is a very workable combination-both can run,
Turiaf can body up on defense and hit jumpers, Wright can slash, and they
can both guard the rim.

-Hopes to ease some of the burden on and maybe eventually replace SJax with
Randolph, who has shown the ability and desire to lead the break and make
plays (and also turn the ball over a ton).

-He's praying that the Warriors are better defensively just by the
subtraction of Baron (his defense comes and go and mostly last season it was
GONE) and the addition of Turiaf and the increased playing time for Wright.

Of course, Belinelli isn't going to help anybody on defense. Ellis might be
a lost cause on defense. Harrington is mediocre at best. Louis Williams is a
no-go on defense.

I repeat: This will not be a better team than last season or the season
before that (after the mega-Indiana trade).

But Baron was not worth $65M. and what Mullin has formulated now is a 9- or
10-man rotation, with youth and versatility, that has some money next season
(Foyle's $6.8M buy-out number comes off the cap) and some interesting ways
to go.