SJMN (Kawakami blog): What I think the Warriors WON'T do

What I think the Warriors WON'T do: Use Harrington for a mega-trade, add
Marion, acquire Marbury.

Posted by Tim Kawakami on July 17th, 2008 at 9:47 pm

I could be wrong, but. Actually, I'm pretty sure I will be wrong on at
least one of these acknowledged suppositions/guesses. That's the fun-that
great chance I'm going to too look stunningly foolish in the very near
future.

How can I resist?

Yes, for some reason, I feel like jumping off the ledge at this particular
moment, when the Warriors could still go many different directions, but when
their options are getting a little limited.

They drafted Anthony Randolph. They lost Baron Davis. They went after Elton
Brand and Gilbert Arenas. They let Pietrus and POB go. They signed Corey
Maggette. They've got an offer sheet out to Ronny Turiaf (deadline at
midnight late Thursday tonight). They have a week to decide whether to match
the Clippers' offer sheet for Kelenna Azubuike.

And now? Pending the Turiaf decision, the GSWs may or may not need another
big man, they definitely need a veteran point guard to take some of the load
off of Monta Ellis, they need some depth at the two wing spots, pending
Azubuike developments.

I've spent a lot of time in the last few weeks trying to figure out what the
Warriors MIGHT do-Javaris Crittenton, Jamal Crawford, Anthony Carter, Nenad
Krstic and a few other names still come to mind as possible add-ons.

But it just feels like the right time to ponder what the Warriors probably
WILL NOT do, based on finances, on the recent moves, on position needs, on
the current roster. Feels like the right time to set some parameters for
what's possible/probable as the market thins and the Warriors have to start
the serious prepwork for training camp.

Let's just go right into it, and yes, please heckle me from the moment these
go up until the milli-second the Warriors officially announce that they are
doing precisely what I said they would not:

1. They WILL NOT get a great deal in their semi-efforts to test the trade
market for much-maligned forward Al Harrington, so they will keep him.

Harrington probably wants out. Don Nelson is probably very willing to
explore that thought. His three-point shooting and size probably is
attractive to a team or two out there. He has an OK contract with an opt-out
next summer.

That's why every decent piece of Warriors trade gossip that did not include
Baron, and every good one after Baron's departure, has included
Harrington-Chauncey Billups, sign-and-trades for Emeka Okafor or Josh Smith,
etc., etc.

But wait: Harrington isn't valuable enough to get Billups or Okafor in
return. He's just not. He's valuable in a salary dump and not a bunch more.

Remember, Marcus Camby is older and makes slightly more (counting bonuses),
but is a much better player than Harrington, and yet all Denver could get
for him was the chance of switching future No. 2s with the Clippers.

That ain't exactly the same as getting Okafor or Billups, is it? And that's
for Camby, a 13-per-game rebounder last season. And a 3-blocks-per-game guy.

I've thrown out Al's name myself, so I do admit some guilt here. But if you
remember, I've tossed him out as a straight salary switcheroo: e.g. to the
Knicks for the longer-term money of Crawford.

Two problems with something like that: The Knicks like Crawford enough to
keep his money around (for a little while at least) and the Warriors aren't
too keen on giving Harrington away, though getting Crawford would be an
upgrade.

As I've written for a while, the key fact here is that Chris Mullin is Al's
No. 1 fan in the organization, and that's a good guy to have as No. 1.
Mullin thinks Harrington's shooting is vital to what the Warriors do, he
likes Al as a person (teammates in Indiana), he thinks Harrington could be
used more in non-three-point situations.

No question, Mullin has traded favored players before-Dunleavy, Murphy,
Richardson. But he has always gotten valuable things back for those
favorites. He did it to improve the team.

I COULD BE WRONG, but unless he can get a player better than Harrington, and
we've just decided that's probably not possible, I don't think Mullin's
dumping Harrington.

2. They WILL NOT find a way to acquire Miami's Shawn Marion, even if they'd
like to.

This is a tough one. I believe that Mullin and Nelson appreciate Marion and
what's not to appreciate about what he does on the basketball court? Defends
anybody. Rebounds. Runs. Shoots the three (funkily, but he can do it).

I believe that the Warriors have had internal discussions about acquiring
Marion and maybe even tossed out an informal line to Miami about what it
might take-any team that plays fast and needs more defense would be crazy
not to consider adding Marion.

The big problem: Marion has one year left on his deal, at $17.8M, and there
is every indication that he doesn't just want a new contract as part of any
move, he wants a MONSTER DEAL. As in: 5 years, $90M or more.

That's not very palatable to anybody. Miami, Utah (possible trade for
Boozer), or Pick The Team. Plus everybody knows Marion is serious about the
cash demands because Dan Fegan is his agent and Dan Fegan's clients always
want money now and big and NOW BIG. That's why they hire him.

(Also, if we put the Harrington issue back into play, what, really, could
the Warriors use to trade for Marion? I mean, I thought it was logical when
they had Baron-salaries exactly the same, both would be screaming for more
money the moment after the trade, both excellent players; but no-Baron,
no-go now.)

I COULD BE WRONG, but I just don't see how Marion gets to the Warriors. They
don't have enough to offer and they don't want to add a player who will be
unhappy and plotting his exit from training camp on.

3. They WILL NOT acquire Stephon Marbury. I think.

I'm going to qualify this one slight, because if the Warriors can get him
for free (assuming he's eventually released/bought-out by the Knicks), who
knows, they might think this is a no-risk look-see. Kind of Webber all over
again. (This is not an original thought.) Or Dajuan Wagner of two years ago.
Or whatever.

Mullin does like reclamation projects and he likes New York city players. At
his best, even at 31, Marbury is a playmaker and the Warriors love
playmakers and they love turning attitude rejects into key cogs.

But I just don't see what the Warriors gain with Marbury, other than the
fantasy-reclamation:

-He's not a pure point guard, never has been, so even if he plays well, he
could butt heads with Monta Ellis, who is the Warriors' true future at the
small-guard spot.

-Marbury's too short to play in the backcourt alongside Ellis for long
minutes, and lord, just thinking about that makes my head pound.

-Let's go best-case scenario, and Marbury plays well. He will immediately be
unhappy about his minimum salary (it'd have to be minimum), about his
secondary role to Ellis and Maggette, he'd pout, it'd be a mini-circus.

-Logical-case scenario: Hey, Marbury's not any good any more! Wake up! What's
the point?

I COULD BE WRONG, but I just don't see what good acquiring Marbury would do
for the Warriors and I see a ton of bad. If Mullin gave Maggette $50M partly
because he thought Maggs would be a good example for the young players, what
kind of example would he be giving them by signing Marbury?

(A Webber-like example.)

4. They WILL NOT lose or trade Ellis and Andris Biedrins this summer.
Probably.

Again, I have a slight hesitation here, but only on the Biedrins part. I
think Ellis is going to be a Warrior for many years and I think there has
been no doubt about that for months.

Biedrins. well, he isn't a pure center, he's slightly duplicated by Brandan
Wright and he doesn't shoot the three, so. But no, I'll wander out on that
limb: He's not moving. He'll sign with the Warriors relatively soon.

I won't even explain the Ellis statement beyond this: Unless he demands to
be moved, he's not getting moved, and even if he demanded it, I think it'd
be very very very unlikely the Warriors would move him.

On Biedrins. It's hard to trade him for precisely the same reasons that he
might be traded: It's hard to determine his value, so, what do you trade him
for? What does another team give up for a 6-11 non-pure-center who can't
shoot? Hard to say.

I COULD BE WRONG, but I think it's too tricky. I think the Warriors will
re-sign both players to expensive deals. They won't lose them or move them.

5. They WILL NOT sign or sign-and-trade for top-end restricted free agents
Josh Smith, Okafor, Andre Igoudala or Luol Deng.

I'm not saying Mullin wouldn't want any of those players, if the price was
right. That's the problem-the price-tags for any of these players takes them
out of the Warriors' current price range and cap-space realm.

The Warriors could do it if they moved Harrington for one of them in a S/T,
but we have gone over that, haven't we? Why would Atlanta or Charlotte take
back Harrington's guaranteed $19M (presuming he does not opt-out) through
2010 as a reward for losing two younger, better players?

They wouldn't. If the Warriors were going to make a move for one of the
Prime RFAs, it would've happened before they gave up their double-digit cap
space by signing Maggette. If they add Turiaf, then there's almost none
left. (Plus the RFAs all can be matched. That jacks up the price for
poaching teams.)

It'd have to be a S/T and I don't see how that happens.

I COULD BE WRONG, but I think the Warriors' big wheeling-and-dealing ended
with Maggette. If the Lakers surprise everybody (except me) by matching
Turiaf, then the Warriors will have another $4M or so starting salary to
toss around. Again, that doesn't get them a star.

Maybe a shot at Krstic or Bostjan Nachbar. Maybe a trade into a slightly
larger salary. But they still need a veteran point guard, remember, and that
will take space.

6. They WILL NOT trade Stephen Jackson. Too important to the Warriors. Not
worth a ton to everybody else. Combined, that means: He's staying.

7. They WILL NOT walk away from Matt Barnes, if he's still out there and
they still have a need at swing forward in a few weeks.

I don't think he's coming back, necessarily, but I don't think the Warriors
have ruled him out completely.

There ya go. I could be wrong 7 ways and I could be wrong immediately. Glad
to step off that ledge. Let's see what happens.