SJMN (Lauridsen): The Next One Counts (Warriors 126, Lietu..

The Next One Counts (Warriors 126, Lietuvos 106)

Posted by Adam Lauridsen on October 22nd, 2008

I missed the Warriors 126-106 win over Lietuvos (Is it too much to ask Bay
Area cable to televise at least one of the Ws' preseason games? What else
are they showing?), but the final exhibition performance was a game where
the box score alone tells a story. Up until Tuesday's game, Nellie had yet
to play a "full squad" in the preseason - putting all his available veterans
on the court at once. We finally saw the future, at least until Monta
returns, against Lithuania's finest. Here's what stands out from the
numbers:

Starters - Nelson / Jackson / Maggette / Harrington / Biedrins is no
surprise. Nellie also distributed minutes in rough relation to the quality
of performance at the position. Harrington saw the fewest minutes with 17,
Jackson had the most with 33. Nelson squeaked out 19 minutes - during which
he managed an eye-popping 8 boards - but failed to rack up many assists.
Maggette (26) and Biedrins (28) held down the middle of the minutes pack.
Hard to say whether these minutes are indicative of what's to come against
better opponents, but if they are Nellie really has committed to playing a
deeper bench. 33 minutes per night for Jackson would be ideal, while 17 for
Harrington would give the youngsters a chance to run at the 4. Nelson and
Watson are likely to platoon at the 1, so their respective minutes should
fluctuate depending on match-ups. My only complaint from the starting 5 is
Andris with 28 minutes, just one above his pace last year. He's
demonstrated countless times that he should be logging 30 minutes a night
minimum, if only for his defense and rebounding.

The Bench - First and foremost, Nellie went deep into it. If the 6 man
bench rotation is for real, it will be put-up-or-shut-up time for those of
us in favor of mix-and-match mayhem from the depth chart. Watson and
Azubuike led the bench brigade with 29 and 28 minutes respectively. Both
seem locks for the 5-8 slots, at least until Ellis returns. Turiaf - the
other lock at the top of the bench rotation - managed a quiet 16 minutes.
At that rate, his court time doesn't need to overlap with Biedrins, a
distribution issue I'll be watching closely early in the season. The real
surprise on the bench comes with the more-than-token minutes Nelson gave
Belinelli (14), Wright (17) and Randolph (14). All three appeared to put up
nice numbers in their own way. It's very encouraging to see Belinelli
helping the team without scoring (5 boards, 5 assists). Wright had another
nice offensive game, which should help his confidence heading into the
season. Randolph's line is quietly efficient. For a rookie on the edge of
the rotation, there are worse things to be. Overall, what jumps out at me
from the box score is that the bench players shot a better percentage,
rebounded at a better rate, and racked up more assists than the starters.
For point guard and power forward, the margin between starter and reserve
appears to be razor thin, so most of the bench gang has plenty of motivation
to impress the coach. The open field for minutes appears to be paying early
dividends in the form of solid contributions across the board.

The Ball Movement - Once again, the Warriors primary distributors were not
their point guards. Although Watson managed 5 assists, Biedrins and
Belinelli both matched that number. Nothing provides a clearer indication
of solid ball movement than non-point guards finding open men for points.
Biedrins assist numbers (similar to Turiaf's earlier in the preseason) also
suggest that Nelson is working the ball from the post to perimeter to
compensate somewhat for the lack of Ellis' drive and kick.

The Shot Selection - The shooting percentage is likely inflated based on the
competition, but it's worth noting that no one but Jackson took more than 2
three pointers. I'm not going to call this evidence of new-found restraint
quite yet, but it's certainly a good start. I'd much rather see Maggette
and Watson go to the line 10 or 7 times than Harrington or Belinelli throw
up 5 three pointers. Jackson's 8 attempts from behind the arc? He gets a
pass Tuesday, since he connected on 5.

The Question Marks - Ultimately, the Warriors have to view their preseason
as a success. It started with the uncertainty from Ellis' injury but closed
with a team that, at least superficially, appears deep and cohesive. The
real test begins next week, but I certainly feel better about our chances
than I would had we lost all of our exhibition games against this collection
of less than stellar opponents. In no particular order, here are the
questions that still linger as we enter the final days before the season:

* Can Nelson and Watson hold their own against real starting point
guards in the NBA? Both seem to be ideal back-ups, but we may be pushing it
a bit to expect either to have the complete game of a starter. Then again,
three weeks ago most of us has DeMarcus Nelson penciled in as an early camp
casualty.

* Does Jackson stick with the program? If he locks down on defense,
distributes the ball and grabs an occasional rebound, he's going to be one
of the most unheralded go-to players in the NBA this year. If he opts for
20+ shots a game, he may single-handedly drive this team off a cliff early
in the season. The early returns are good for Jackson - and I think he's
smart enough to know his role - but when Jack gets that look in his eye
dribbling down court, you can never be sure.

* Does Al Harrington make it to December as a Warrior? We've spent the
entire off-season trying to figure out how Al fits into the team. Put aside
Nelson's early praise and Al's newly minted captainship. His numbers and
performance have yet to set him apart from the others fighting for the job.
Wright and Randolph do not yet have the consistency to compete with Al
individually, but in each preseason game, at least one of the youngsters
looked better at the power forward position. Given the combo of
Wright/Randolph vs. Harrington, I'd probably take my chances with a platoon
of the youngsters. Against the heavyweights of the league, the team will
still need Al's defense, but Turiaf could easily slide over to replace that
if Al was to be moved. But that once again brings us back to the question
we asked last year: can we get anything for Al? Given ownership's
increasingly explicit worship of the golden calf of NBA basketball - "salary
protection" - it's unlikely we can hope for more than an expiring deal back
in return. If the youngsters continue to look ready, however, moving Al to
clear minutes might be a positive move in and of itself.

* Has Nellie really cooked up a new plan? For this question, we'll have
to wait a few games. Nelson is famous for bailing on failed experiments
early in the season. 10 games into November, DeMarcus at point guard - or
Harrington at power forward - could be long lost memories. Time will tell,
but the preseason rotations and opportunities for youngsters suggest that
Nelson might surprise a few of his doubters this year.

If you made it to the game and can supplement my box score ramblings, please
let us know what you saw. Otherwise, we can all take comfort in the fact
that we're a week away from sinking our teeth into real wins and losses, for
better or for worse.