SJMN (Lauridsen): Where We Stand

Where We Stand

Posted by Adam Lauridsen on July 22nd, 2008 at 3:20 am

Lao Tzu once wrote "A good traveller has no fixed plans, and is not intent
on arriving." It's unclear whether the same logic applies to NBA GMs. As
the clock continues to run on the Warriors' off-season, however, it looks
like our top priorities may be the ones we accomplish last. And any plans
we may (or may not) have had likely received a bit of a jolt from the first
half of our summer league play. Here's what we've learned over the past few
days and what we're left wondering.

Anthony Randolph - Yes, all the usual summer league caveats apply, but this
young man has impact player written all over his game. From his debut
explosion to his later relentless attacking of the basket, I've been shocked
at how NBA ready Randolph's offensive game looks. That said, it's not clear
that his body or defensive skills are quite up to speed with his offensive
game. Fortunately for Randolph, he's playing for the coach most likely to
look past those current shortcomings. I'm not yet predicting major minutes
for the rookie, but on a team lacking decent ball-handlers, Randolph will
give Nelson a confident ball handler to bring off the bench. The fact that
Nelson might get to scratch his point forward itch certainly won't hurt the
young man's chances of seeing minutes.

Brandan Wright - As good as Randolph was at convincing spectators that he's
NBA ready, Wright excelled nearly as much in proving the opposite. I still
refuse to dismiss Wright's talent and NBA potential - he's too young and too
versatile to jump to such rash conclusions. That said, I saw nothing in the
summer league that convinced me that Wright is ready to produce on a more
consistent basis than he did last year. We might see some bursts of energy,
an occasional jump shot or slam dunk, and smart yet subtle play all around,
but we're not going to see a player next year capable of being a night-in /
night-out offensive and defensive threat. His offense, particularly in the
post, still looks to be inconsistent and his defensive instincts are still
betrayed by his slender frame. Fortunately, the Warriors have time. The
best thing we can do at the moment regarding Wright is hold our expectations
in check and hope that he can gradually work his way into the rotation while
gaining confidence in his own abilities.

Marco Belinelli - While Randolph impressed and Wright disappointed, Marco
turned in a summer league performance that was just about what I expected.
He's stronger, a more confident ball-handler and, at a minimum, a smarter
defender if still frequently overwhelmed by quicker players. He had some
hot games from the field and turned in a few cold ones as well. Despite
following a typical sophomore script, here's the question I wrestle with
regarding Belinelli: will his lack of speed on defense neutralize any
advantage gained from his excellent passing and dribbling on offense?
Streaky shooters earn consistent minutes by doing other things. For
Belinelli, those things are above average ball-handling and slick sixth
sense passing. But if all of that comes at the cost of giving up easy
basket after easy basket to the opposing point guard or off guard, Marco
will be no more than a platoon player on this team, rolled out when there's
a slow or offensively limited player on the court that Marco can handle.
Given how fun Marco is to watch, I'd hate to think that this is his future.
We should get a better sense in training camp when he hits the court with 4
other genuine NBA talents.

CJ Watson - With an explosive week at Vegas, Watson likely did a lot to earn
a spot on an NBA roster. I'm not sure, however, that he did much to
solidify his place with the Warriors. Watson proved that he has a great
first step and a relatively consistent jump shot. Those two offensive gifts
allowed him to light up the third-tier talent of the Vegas Summer League.
What he failed to demonstrate, however, was that he could run a team in
anything other than a fast break setting. He's young and might still learn,
but from my limited exposure to Watson running the summer league team, the
intangibles of timing, court vision, and spacing didn't appear to be there.
CJ should have a fine NBA career as a combo guard, but with the Warriors in
desperate need of a true point, it remains to be seen whether the team will
lock him in for the 08-09 season.

Kelenna Azubuike - It was only a matter of when, not if, Kelenna got a nice
offer on a long-term NBA deal. The Clippers deal is a pretty fair price, in
my estimation, for a young player that has already demonstrated the ability
both to score and defend, as well as deliver in the clutch. There are
question marks around his game-such as the dramatic decrease in his
explosiveness as last season dragged on-but the solid foundation of
fundamentals he brings would help any team. Hopefully that team will be the
Warriors, assuming Cohan and Mullin aren't penny wise, pound foolish.
Signing Azubuike to a $3 mil deal as opposed to a minimum or near minimum
player for less isn't going to make any significant difference as to the
Warriors' ability to pursue big ticket players down the road. There's
always a million or two of fudge room on rosters, as the Sixers demonstrated
in clearing out space for Brand. But while signing Azubuike is a minimal
risk financially, losing his services could be a major risk for the depth of
the team. Beyond his consistent scoring, Kelenna was our best on-the-ball
defender last year (even shutting down Kobe for extended stretches) and
rebounded like no guard we've seen since Jason Richardson. For a backcourt
that is either small and fast (Ellis, Watson) or bigger but slower (Jackson,
Belinelli), Azubuike brings a unique blend of skills to the two guard spot.
That is, of course, unless Mullin and company have become so enamored with
the apparent potential of Randolph combined with the newness of Maggette's
game that they're unwilling to spend a few million on a backup swingman. We'll
know in just a few short days.

Ronny Turiaf - After years of getting knocked around under the basket, the
Warriors finally have a player with at least the strength to return some of
the punishment. Whether his basketball skills match his energy and
enthusiasm remains to be seen, but Turiaf should get minutes from day one on
this team as great change of pace from the bench. In a perfect game, the
Warriors' first team would run an opponent, hitting jump shots and
converting on the fast break, leading to broad spacing on defense. Nelson
could then turn to Turiaf to exploit the seams created down low, using his
limited yet better-than-anything-else-we-have post moves to give the
Warriors some offensive diversity. As with Azubuike, Turiaf is the type of
$3-4 million a year player that gives you your money's worth every night
and, on occasion, a whole lot more.

Richard Hendrix - After sitting out most of the Vegas summer league, we're
finally getting to see Hendrix in action. The results have been exactly as
I hoped when he slipped to us in the second round. He doesn't try to do too
much when he's on the court but does a few things we desperately need very
well: he gobbles up rebounds, throws his body up against opponents, and
moves comfortably with the ball within six or seven feet of the hoop.
Again, all the usual summer league scrub warnings apply here, but Hendrix
could work his way into the Warriors' rotation based on his rebounding alone
if he keeps up the current pace.

Lou Williams - Last but not least, the most current name on the lips of
Warriors rumor mongers. The Sixer point guard is a restricted free agent,
meaning that the Warriors would need to think through their timing carefully
when extending him an offer sheet. If we commit to Williams, we're likely
taking ourselves out of the market for the remaining free agents (other than
our own), who are finding new homes at an accelerating pace this week. If
you ask whether Williams is a good option for the Warriors at the point, you're
asking the wrong question. With the free agent class dwindling and the
trades in a lull, Mullin must confront the cold reality that he's still
without a starting (or back-up, if you believe the Monta to PG claims) point
guard to run the team. Williams, from the admittedly little I've seen from
him, seems to have a slightly better court sense than Monta. Both are
scorers more than passers, but Williams looks at least a bit more
comfortable with the ball in his hand at the top of the key. I have no
problem with the Warriors extending an offer - and like the potential
signing as a furtherance of our youth movement - but its essential that we
don't overpay for an unproven talent. Anything beyond $3-4 mil would be
excessive. A 6-2 and under backcourt is awfully small by NBA standards.
Nellie can experiment with it next year, but I'd hate to be locked into it
for $15-20 mil a year for the next three or four seasons.

While Warriors fans are left to consider how all of the above players fit
into our future, the two players arguably most important to our present
(Ellis and Biedrins) remain in contract limbo. The optimist in me thinks
that the lack of news is just a matter of strategic timing, with the team
waiting for other signings to fall into place before locking in Ellis at a
figure far above his cap hold. The Warriors realist in me, however, keeps
nursing this nagging thought that delays usually equal problems for this
ball club. We're still within the "fashionably late" signing period, but by
the start of next week we will have hit the "potential derailment" section
of the summer signing period. The Warriors have asked their fans to take a
leap of faith this season - watching Davis disappear and sinking money into
two skilled but lower tier free agent investments. I'm excited of the
prospect of our team growing together, but all of that excitement is based
on the assumption that our youngsters from last year will return. If the
Warriors fail to secure our two youngsters, it'll be awfully hard to justify
the "youth movement" plan theory tossed around all off-season. What's the
plan for a team neither pushing to win now nor building around a young
nucleus? Let's hope we don't have to find out.

On Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:38:56 -0500, "Robin Miller"
<Not_My.TakeThisOut@Real_Address.com> wrote:

>Where We Stand
>
>Posted by Adam Lauridsen on July 22nd, 2008 at 3:20 am
>
>Lao Tzu once wrote "A good traveller has no fixed plans, and is not intent
>on arriving." It's unclear whether the same logic applies to NBA GMs. As
>the clock continues to run on the Warriors' off-season, however, it looks
>like our top priorities may be the ones we accomplish last. And any plans
>we may (or may not) have had likely received a bit of a jolt from the first
>half of our summer league play. Here's what we've learned over the past few
>days and what we're left wondering.
>
>Anthony Randolph - Yes, all the usual summer league caveats apply, but this
>young man has impact player written all over his game. From his debut
>explosion to his later relentless attacking of the basket, I've been shocked
>at how NBA ready Randolph's offensive game looks.

Randolph's offensive game isn't remotely NBA ready. He's got first class
dribbling skills for a man his size, he's pretty decent at shooting a
mid-range jumper off the dribble, and he can finish with contact OK. But
most of his numbers are coming from trips to the foul line that he isn't
going to get in the rookie-unfriendly NBA. And his turnovers are going to
drive Nellie crazy in the short-term.

Lot of tools, but needs polish.

>Marco Belinelli - While Randolph impressed and Wright disappointed, Marco
>turned in a summer league performance that was just about what I expected.
>He's stronger, a more confident ball-handler and, at a minimum, a smarter
>defender if still frequently overwhelmed by quicker players. He had some
>hot games from the field and turned in a few cold ones as well. Despite
>following a typical sophomore script, here's the question I wrestle with
>regarding Belinelli: will his lack of speed on defense neutralize any
>advantage gained from his excellent passing and dribbling on offense?

His passing is nothing great.

>CJ Watson

Undoubtedly will be on another team's roster.

>Kelenna Azubuike

Probably little chance we will match after the Williams trade.

>Lou Williams - Last but not least, the most current name on the lips of
>Warriors rumor mongers.

He is being considered as an alternative to Monta, not as someone to play
with him.
--
Greg Lentz