SJMN (Lauridsen): First Things Last

First Things Last

By Adam Lauridsen
Thursday, April 24th, 2008

The next three months are full of crucial dates for the Warriors.
Unfortunately, they're in just about the worst order possible. Since we're
missing out on all that other NBA activity, here are the dates we'll all be
circling on our 2007-08 commemorative "No Playoffs" calendars:

As always, thanks to Larry Coon's great salary cap FAQ.

May 20 - Draft Lottery

June 25 - Azubuike's Opt-Out Deadline

June 26 - the Draft

June 26/27/28 (?) - Richardson Trade Exception Expires (Extra credit to the
reader who can figure out on which day it expires. Trade exceptions last
one year, marked from the June 28, 2007 draft. But do you count the day of
the trade in that year? Do you count a year as 365 days - including Feb 29,
2008 - or as a "typical" year - i.e. June 28, 2007 - June 27, 2008? These
are the things that keep me up at night.)

June 30 - Davis Opt-Out Deadline

July 1 - Nelson's Self-Proclaimed Decision Deadline

July 1 - Free Agent Negotiations Begin

July 9 - Teams May Begin Signing Free Agents

So here's my problem with the schedule above: this team is either going to
be built based upon Mullin's vision (including who should be coach) or the
coach's vision. Unfortunately, the coaching decision has been taken out of
Mullin's hands while Nellie retreats to Maui. And with Nelson's status up
in the air until July 1 (and likely longer - he set one of these deadlines
last season only to miss it by a few months), there will be uncertainty
hanging over all other decisions made by the team and its players.

In chronological order:

The Lottery - The Nelson uncertainty means nothing here, unless you believe
in some karmic theory whereby Nelson's presence makes us more / less likely
to have our ping pong balls spit out of the hopper at the right moment.

Azubuike - He's going to opt out regardless of the coach given his excellent
play this season. The timeline isn't a problem yet.

The Draft - Here's the first huge problem. The Warriors have three obvious
needs: a strong low-post player, a pass-first, preferably tall point guard
of the future, and a high percentage jump shooter. A typical coach would
probably rank our needs in that order. Nelson, however, would likely flip
them given his style of play. We've seen with Patrick O'Bryant just how
ugly things can get when a lottery pick in one system finds himself stranded
in another. To avoid another wasted pick, either Mullin needs to assert
that the Warriors will play a certain style of ball regardless or Nelson
needs to make his decision sooner rather than later. Right now, it's
unclear whether the ship is on course or merely drifting with the currents.

The Trade Exception - The schedule poses a huge problem here for a different
reason. Cohan has expressed a reluctance to pay the luxury tax and we have
no reason to believe he'll do it again this year. Whether or not the
Warriors are flirting with the luxury tax depends on whether Baron opts out
and how much money Andris and Monta get. Unfortunately, we'll learn those
things after the trade exception has expired. So, Cohan either uses the
exception to bring in talent and salary and risks hitting the tax depending
on later decisions or steers clear of the tax by letting the exception (and
its nearly $10 mil of trading force) slip quietly into the ether. If the
past is any indicator, almost everything points to the latter. Of course,
nothing would make me happier than to see our owner take a short-term
financial hit (we'll gain nearly $18 mil of cap space when Baron's deal
expires in 09-10, easing the tax pressure) to improve the long-term
basketball prospects of this team. I'll believe it when I see it.

Davis Opt-Out - All signs point to Baron not opting out. Still, other
cities might start looking much more attractive if the Warriors don't use
the trade exception and Nelson doesn't look like he's coming back (or maybe
does look like he's coming back, if you buy the BD / Nelson feud). Davis is
unlikely to get even half his current salary through a straight opt-out, but
he could decide to play chicken with the Warriors if he's truly unhappy -
threatening to opt out unless the team trades him. It would be a dangerous
game, particularly given all the uncertainty surrounding the team.

Nelson's Return - The July 1 date was thrown out by Nelson and isn't set in
stone. Unless he intends to hold out again to renegotiate his contract,
there's really no reason for him to wait this long. He could help defuse
the entire situation by making his status clear in the weeks before the
draft. Of course, if he wants to extract certain basketball decisions from
the team management and owner as conditions for his return, July 1 - with
maybe a two week extension announced at the last minute - makes a lot of
sense.

Monta and Andris - July 9 is the first day contracts could be inked, but
certainly not the last. Since both players are restricted free agents, the
Warriors could take a wait-and-see approach, hoping that a few weeks without
a high offer drives down the players' prices. My guess is we'll see
different strategies for each player. Andris has expressed a clear desire
to return to the Warriors and won't have the suitors that Monta will around
the NBA. The team should be able to ink a reasonable deal with him without
leaving him on the open market. There's a dead zone between the $7-10 mil
Andris will likely earn and the $6 mil mid-level exception that makes a
qualifying offer unlikely. Without any real demand to set a price, the
Warriors might as well negotiate up front. Monta, however, is a tougher
call. Memphis, despite having a roster half-full of point guards and
tweeners, might throw big money at Ellis. If they do, I expect the Warriors
to match. That said, the Ws face a nasty psychological Catch-22. If the
Warriors announce that they will match no matter what, Memphis might not
waste the time a qualifying offer takes on a deal with Monta. On the other
hand, if Memphis isn't worried about other big-spenders coming in to draw
down the free agent market while the clock on the Ellis offer runs, the Griz
might as well shoot the moon with Monta in hopes of driving up his price for
the Warriors. But then, if the Warriors suddenly balk at an insane contract
sum and don't match, the Griz are left capped out with an overpaid player.
And on and on and on. These are the reasons players hire agents: to make
sure all their moves in these dances produce as much money as possible.
These are also the reasons why nothing kills a team faster than a naïve GM.

Here's hoping we don't have one.