Shoot more!

I have been up on the mountain taking to the Stat Gods for a while, I
thought I would come down and tell you mere mortals what I have
learned.

Was trying to figure out the variance of a game spread.

Some say its 121.

Others say is the square root of the sum of the scores (T).

I have been analyzing some spreads, over/unders, scores and I think it
might be something like:

Np(1-p)

where N is the total number of scoring opportunities, p being the
probability of converting the scoring opportunity into a score.

But, here's the kicker. The number of scoring oppurtunities is
maybe twice the number of shots that are typically made in a game.

Brings to mind the question, why not shoot more?

Not shooting more may be overrated.

On Apr 20, 1:08 pm, "Edward M. Kennedy" <d....TakeThisOut@wox.com> wrote:
> "stat monkey" <tadams....TakeThisOut@yahoo.com> wrote
>
>
>
>
>
> > I have been up on the mountain taking to the Stat Gods for a while, I
> > thought I would come down and tell you mere mortals what I have
> > learned.
>
> > Was trying to figure out the variance of a game spread.
>
> > Some say its 121.
>
> > Others say is the square root of the sum of the scores (T).
>
> > I have been analyzing some spreads, over/unders, scores and I think it
> > might be something like:
>
> > Np(1-p)
>
> > where N is the total number of scoring opportunities, p being the
> > probability of converting the scoring opportunity into a score.
>
> > But, here's the kicker. The number of scoring oppurtunities is
> > maybe twice the number of shots that are typically made in a game.
>
> > Brings to mind the question, why not shoot more?
>
> > Not shooting more may be overrated.
>
> Loyola Marymount says hi. RIP Hank Gathers.
>
> --Tedward- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

Thanks, I knew someone here could point me to an example of what I
may have seen in that likelihood ratio test.

But I think their coach is the one who should by saying hi:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Westhead

Loyola Marymount under Westhead was impressive.

Gather's death was just a coincidence.

I think there is something to this idea. Shoot more, and maybe
recruit more shooters for the team. But spend *less* time on
offensive strategy, because you're just efing going to efing shoot.
Spend more time on training on every aspect of defense, from the
offensive rebound to the fast break. After all, you will be playing
most of the game on defense since you just efing shoot, and you need
to make the other team pay for not shooting ASAP.

Westhead probably did not exhaust every aspect of the idea. He was
back coaching in the NBA after 5-6 years at LMU.

Westhead is now a WNBA coach.

Anyway, I am not through with the likelihood ratio testing. Still
need to download data on a another 6000 games or so to get a
statistically significant result.