http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/xphoenix87/2007/12/18/The_Oregon_...il_8_in
week ago when I wrote my last post, I almost posted something about the
Trail Blazer's 5-game winning streak, but I decided it was a bit premature
and that they probably wouldn't keep it up. Silly me. Portland has added 3
very strong wins to that, and it's time to take a look at what the Blazers
are doing.
You can basically dismiss the first three games of the streak because they
came against pretty poor competition (man did I miss the mark with Memphis).
However, the last 5 wins have been extremely impressive, coming against 4
Western Conference playoff teams (Utah twice), and playing without LaMarcus
Aldridge. Perhaps even more impressive than the level of competition is the
fact that 2 of the wins came on the road, where the young Blazers have
really struggled. So, what is Portland doing so well that they've managed to
win 5 quality games without Aldridge's 19 and 8 each night?
First of all, note that the Blazers haven't changed their mindset with
Aldridge out. They've been one of the slowest teams in the league this year,
with only Detroit playing less possessions per game than Portland. Through
the streak, they haven't upped the tempo at all, and in fact have even
slowed down a bit more, averaging a turtle-slow 90.6 possessions per game.
Another important statistic is that they haven't been shooting much better
than usual these last 5 games (roughly equivalent FG% and lower 3PT%), which
actually bodes well for the future since it indicates that they aren't just
on a hot streak. Lastly, the Blazers' assist, turnover, steal, and block
totals are almost exactly on their season average during this streak,
nothing that jumps out there.
So what are the Blazers doing? Well, for the season they're one of the
league's poorer defensive teams, with their defensive rating of 104.4 coming
in at 21st in the league. During this 5 game streak against 4 good offensive
teams (New Orleans was the worst at 16th in the league offensively),
Portland has posted a defensive efficiency of 100.6, an improvement of
nearly 4 points per hundred possessions. That's a huge jump for a team to
make. Where did the improvement come from? The biggest factor is the
increase in minutes for Joel Przybilla in Aldridge's absence. Przybilla may
be an offensive non-factor, but he's a terrific defender and rebounder, and
Aldridge just isn't a defensive presence at this point in his career. The
other significant factor is that less minutes are going to
defensively-challenged Martell Webster, and more are going to solid
defenders Travis Outlaw and James Jones.
So, the defense is better, but they've had a few offensive problems without
Aldridge, right? Not exactly. Even more impressive than their defensive
improvement is the Blazers' offensive execution without Aldridge. Their
offensive efficiency for the season is 102.7, but during the streak it has
been a blistering 111.5, a point and a half above Dallas' league-leading
season average. They put up a 128 offensive rating AT DENVER (the second
best defense in the league)!! What's going on here? They're shooting about
the same percentage, they're turning the ball over the same amount, they're
not getting more offensive rebounds. What the heck is making Portland so
much better offensively? The answer is that they're going to the easiest
place to get points, namely the free-throw line. the Blazers are playing
aggressively, getting to the line nearly 6 more times per game during this
stretch, and shooting 3 percentage points higher from the stripe. The two
driving forces behind this change are Outlaw and Brandon Roy (who has been
spectacular), who are both averaging around 6 FTAs per game in the last 5
games. The lesson? Practice your foul shots kids, they aren't fancy, but
they win games.
While we are at it, I'd like to take a look at those two guys, who really
have fueled this streak. The way Outlaw is playing this year, he'd be a
front-runner for Sixth Man of the Year if this weren't The Year of the
Reserve (Manu, Terry and Barbosa all playing so well). He's a terrific
athlete and we've talked about his potential for years, but this year he has
started to put together consistent performances. He's averaging 17-6 with a
block and a steal in 30 minutes a game during December (including five
20-point games). Between he and James Jones (who is playing out of his mind
right now) and the occasional strong game from Webster, the Blazers have a
very strong SF rotation.
Meanwhile, Roy has been playing out of his mind. It still boggles my mind
how this guy slipped as far as he did in the draft (when he was obviously
the best player in that draft class). His hesitation move in the lane is as
good as anyone in the league. He'll beat his man and get into the lane, then
slow up for half a second to let the big step towards him, then he goes
right to the rim, often completely unchallenged because he got the post
player so far out of position. It's really subtle, but between that and his
ability to crossover in traffic, he's one of the league's best at
maneuvering in the paint. His December has been ridiculous as he's putting
up 22-5-7 with under 2 turnovers a game.
Looking forward at the schedule, Portland plays the next 5 games at home,
where they've been fantastic (10-3), and only 2 of those are difficult
opponents (Toronto and Denver). With a little luck, it's entirely possible
that the Blazers could be 18-12 and riding a 13 game winning streak as they
start their road trip in Utah at the end of December. This seems like a good
time to mention that the odds of a sub-.500 team having a 10-game winning
streak are 3%. Now, that's not to say that the Blazers are world-beaters,
but I think we can say with some reasonable certainty that this is a solid
team. At worst, they're an absolute menace at home, and you certainly don't
look at a game against them and say "that one's a gimme".
As one final note, I'm feeling renewed confidence in saying that Portland
will bring home a championship within the next five years. They have a solid
team built of basically all young players this year, and they have even more
talent waiting in the wings. Remember, in addition to Oden they own the
rights to Rudy Fernandez, Joel Freeland, and Petteri Koponen, who are
playing overseas (I've read scouts say that all 3 of those guys have
lottery-level talent and potential, but they all fell to late-first round
because they would have to wait in Europe to develop). This team has more
young talent than any two other teams in the league combined. It's a good
time to be a Blazers fan.
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