What were your worst personnel beliefs?

(As a word of introduction, I've followed the Celtics group for a
while. But it gets pretty depressing there, as you can imagine. This
group interested me because I like the team, and it's good reading)

Anyway...while I consider myself a fairly astute observer of the game,
I have had these views at draft time:

I thought Stacey King was going to be a McHale-like scorer in the low
post.
I figured Doug Smith and Bo Kimble were absolutely can't-miss to be
top-level pros.

Yes, laugh, but does anybody have any similar confessions?

(As a Boston local, I'll note that Bob Ryan once went on for two pages
about what a talent Brad Lohaus was after seeing him in training camp.)